The aim of the Delphi method is to combine the knowledge of various experts to produce the most reliable joint forecast possible in an innovation or problem area.
The method is based on the assumptions that experts know the future of their field better than others and that several experts do not forecast worse than a single expert.
The Delphi method is a multi-stage form of expert interviewing. The pre-selected experts are asked about their assessments or judgments of the issue of interest using a formal questionnaire. Subsequently, the results received are evaluated and, in the case of strongly differing opinions, sent out again to the experts.
An important prerequisite for the implementation of the Delphi method is the careful selection of experts. It is important to involve experts from different fields who can provide expert judgment on the issue under investigation.
In addition, a carefully designed questionnaire is needed that covers all relevant survey content. Another success factor for implementation is a qualified team that evaluates the questionnaires.
A typical example of the application of the Delphi method is the determination of development forecasts in the technology sector. In this context, the Delphi method belongs to trend research. Example: How is technology evolving in the area of battery life for notebooks?
The advantage of the Delphi method over other qualitative forecasting methods is that it is largely objective and free of extreme judgments due to the interview loops and the large number of experts interviewed.
