Guess Map, also called Future Map, is a method for generating possible overall scenarios based on the collaborative assumption of a group on events that will occur (for example, so-called tipping points or upheaval points).
The approach is largely based on the idea that a group of people bring together partial sections of their insights relevant to the development of the future and integrate them with each other to form a picture of the future.
The method thus essentially follows the logic of swarm intelligence and the open exchange and discussion of subjective (expert) knowledge. Due to the dynamic impact of actual developments on the future picture assumed in the starting point, the method requires a recurring review and adjustment of the original assumptions. In the concatenation, this often results in interactions with other overall scenario sections.
In use, the group learns as a side effect to adapt to unexpected events and ideally thus sukezzive increases its so-called future readiness. Compare also the opportunity response model.
