The speed of market penetration of new technologies is often overestimated. It is not unusual for it to take decades for a technology to become established on the mass market.
Examples are the electric car (the first fuel cell was developed in 1838, the first hybrid drive was invented and built by Ferdinand Porsche in 1902), the “Navi” (the first navigation system was built by Honda in 1981) or the PC.
Ideas such as the telephone, the automobile and the airplane revolutionized the world, but took more than a century to gain popular acceptance.
New technologies are gaining market acceptance by gradually addressing five different user groups. Market penetration takes the form of a bell-shaped movement. This is referred to as the Rogers curve.
First, the techies are addressed. Their primary interest is the technical aspect, not the benefits.
Then the trendsetters (early adopters) are addressed. They are using the new technology before the masses do.
The pragmatists are primarily discovering the benefits and bringing the little-used technology to the mass market.
As soon as the new technology is established on the market and the sales value drops, even the conservatives grab it.
Once the technology has become “commonplace,” even the skeptic feels ready to use it.
Rogers defines five influences on the speed of a spread:
1.) ADVANTAGE
The customer must see clear advantages for himself (economy, reputation, comfort, fashion).
2.) COMPATIBILITY
It must be possible to switch from the current to the new solution without any problems or effort. The benefits must clearly outweigh the costs.
3.) COMPLEXITY
The changeover and entry must be simple and intuitive.
4.) AVAILABILITY
The customer must have the opportunity to touch and test the new product.
5.) VISIBILITY
The benefits of the new technology must be directly recognizable and describable in eight words.
