The scenario technique is a strategic planning process and is used to project an existing condition into the future. The core of the scenario technique is the creation of different future scenarios that take several influences into account.
Based on the scenarios created, planning and measures can be developed that respond to the respective scenarios (assumptions). In contrast to the forecasting technique, scenario planning does not take the past into account. In the innovation process, scenarios are primarily used to identify a future need and offer suitable solutions. At the same time, the scenario technique can be used to play through whether a current product idea will still find a sufficient market in the future.
It takes a lot of effort to create detailed scenarios of high quality. Above all, the collection of necessary data is associated with a lot of personnel effort, time and costs. Those involved should be familiar with and practiced in the method, especially in order to be able to carefully and reliably classify correlations between individual parameters. Due to the very extensive analysis phase, the scenario technique is excellently suited to provide a comprehensive picture of the company, the market and future developments.
Difficult factors within a scenario analysis are wars, natural disasters and extraordinary political upheavals. However, since it is likely that these will take place in long-term scenarios, scenarios should be viewed with appropriate caution.
